The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its "Electricity Market Report 2023" on the 8th, stating that renewable energy will surpass coal to become the world's largest source of electricity within three years. Although economic development has slowed due to the energy crisis, electricity demand will rise again as economies recover. However, carbon emissions from the power sector peaked in 2022 and are expected to decline slightly or remain roughly flat over the next few years.
The IEA predicts that electricity demand will accelerate over the next three years, with 98% of this increase expected to be met by renewable energy. Power supply stability will be significantly impacted by weather, significantly increasing the importance of demand-side flexibility measures, energy storage, and dispatchable renewable energy. Carbon Brief, compiling the IEA report, indicates that energy storage capacity will increase by 17GW in 2022, a roughly 90% increase over the previous year.
Economic recovery and electricity growth: 98% of electricity comes from renewable energy
The IEA notes that due to the global energy crisis, most countries have revised downward their GDP growth forecasts. However, as economies recover, global electricity demand is expected to grow rapidly starting in 2023, and by 2025, it is projected to increase by another 2,500 TWh, equivalent to the electricity demand of the entire European Union market within three years. China will account for one-third of global electricity consumption.
Carbon Brief reports that renewable energy and nuclear power will be the driving forces in meeting this wave of electricity demand. Global electricity generation is projected to increase by 2,493 TWh between 2022 and 2025, with renewable energy accounting for 2,450 TWh. In other words, 98% of the total global demand growth will come from renewable energy. By 2025, renewable energy's share of global electricity generation will increase from 29% to 35%, surpassing coal to become the world's largest source of electricity.
In contrast to the gradual phase-out of coal-fired power generation, nuclear power generation is experiencing a resurgence in Asia. Both China and India have plans for new nuclear power plants, while France and Japan are gradually restarting nuclear power plants. Nuclear power generation is projected to increase by 302 TWh by 2025.
Carbon emissions from the power sector hit a new high in 2022, but the IEA predicts that although electricity demand will increase, it will remain roughly the same or slightly decline in the next few years as renewable energy increases, and will not increase significantly.
Extreme weather impacts power stability, driving rapid growth in demand-side management and energy storage
The IEA pointed out that as the proportion of photovoltaic and wind power increases, electricity supply is increasingly affected by weather, such as extreme droughts, heat waves, and blizzards in 2022.
Carbon Brief, citing IEA data, points out that this means that "demand-side flexibility" (such as providing incentives for consumers to reduce electricity consumption), energy storage, and renewable energy that can be dispatched on demand (such as hydropower, geothermal energy, and biomass energy) will become increasingly important.
Integrating renewable energy sources with vastly different characteristics is not easy, but the IEA says the technology still has a lot of room for development and this will not be an obstacle.
Carbon Brief reports that energy storage is booming, with approximately 17GW of new capacity added in 2022, a 90% increase over the previous year. This growth was driven by an 80% increase in the United States, a doubling in China, and a fivefold increase in emerging economies excluding China.
Source: Environmental Information Center (https://e-info.org.tw/node/236099)
