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Carbon emissions also need to be paid for. Experts call on countries to quickly establish a "carbon debt" mechanism.

2021-10-07

As atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise, the risk of our descendants being burdened with a massive carbon debt is increasing. Researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and international partners are calling for the immediate establishment of a Carbon Removal Obligation (CRO) to determine the responsibility for this carbon debt. The upcoming revision of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme offers an opportunity to introduce this. Scholars suggest that the world should secure funding to implement carbon debt before the carbon budget is exhausted. Over the past few decades, governments have collectively pledged to slow global warming through agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. Despite the ratification of these agreements by many countries, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise. At the current rate of progress, we are on track to exhaust the remaining available CO2 emissions before global warming reaches 1.5°C. If this so-called "carbon budget" is exhausted before the world reaches net zero emissions, we will have to remove one ton of CO2 from the atmosphere for every ton of CO2 we emit. In other words, if we continue on the current trajectory—which now seems likely—we will accumulate a carbon debt. A new study published in the journal Nature suggests that the growing number of national net-zero commitments assumes a substantial carbon debt that will need to be offset through long-term net negative emissions. For example, the ideal global scenario in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on 1.5°C Warming estimates that the carbon debt could be equivalent to 2 to 18 years of pre-pandemic emissions. This amount is certain to increase if CO2 emissions fail to decrease by approximately 50% by 2030, or if major Earth system events occur (such as additional carbon emissions from thawing permafrost). "The recent adoption of the EU climate law, which commits not only to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 but also to sustained net negative emissions thereafter, could help reduce the global carbon budget overrun. However, so far, this remains largely a statement, as there has been no serious political or academic discussion on establishing instruments for large-scale, long-term obligations for CO2 removal," said Johannes Bednar, lead author of the study, an IIASA researcher and a doctoral student at the University of Oxford. While there are various positive agendas for achieving net-zero emissions, a strategy for repaying the substantial carbon debt is lacking. Our descendants will likely end up saddled with a massive carbon debt, which not only raises questions of fairness but also significantly reduces the chances of limiting warming to 1.5°C in the long run. To ensure the viability of a future net-negative emissions economy, the authors argue that carbon pricing is necessary to finance the repayment of carbon debt while emissions are still within net-positive territory. Economically speaking, this should begin no later than when the carbon budget is exhausted. Source: Environmental Information Center (https://e-info.org.tw/node/231653)

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