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COP26 new commitments from major carbon emitters have the opportunity to limit warming to 2°C

2021-11-18

The Guardian reported that greenhouse gas emission pledges made at the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow offer a chance to limit global temperature rise to below 2°C, marking the first time the world has come so close to meeting the Paris Agreement goal. The COP26 President stated that the 2030 global carbon emissions halving target is still not within reach. Research from the University of Melbourne in Australia found that plans by India, the world's third-largest emitter, have had a significant impact on global warming projections. If the pledges made by India and other countries at the conference are fully implemented, warming could reach approximately 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels, below the 2°C limit but above the 1.5°C target set in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. However, Miliband, the Labour Party's Shadow Business Secretary and a participant in the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Summit, warned that much work remains to be done. Miliband told the Guardian: "Any progress is welcome, but we need to be very cautious about vague and empty targets that are 30 years or more out in the future. For example, Australia is targeting net zero by 2050, but its 2030 plan would actually lead to a 4°C rise in temperature. This decade is crucial, and there is a reason why emissions need to be halved within a decade to maintain the urgency, clarity and specificity needed to achieve 1.5°C. We cannot allow political leaders to change the target." COP26 President Alok Sharma said the new commitments were important progress, but that much more needed to be done at this COP to achieve the 1.5°C target. Sharma said that with the latest commitments from India and other countries, 90% of global GDP now has net zero commitments, compared to only about 30% a year ago. But he also stressed that the near-term goal of halving global emissions by 2030 is still lacking. How to bridge this gap is the key issue for the COP at this moment. For the first time, the probability of limiting warming to below 2°C exceeds 50%. Malte Meinshausen, an author of the report, an associate professor of climate science at the University of Melbourne and a member of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), stated that the significant improvement in the global warming outlook is primarily due to upward revisions to India's 2070 and China's 2030 emissions targets. Meinshausen stated that this is the first time that the combined pledges and possible emissions pathways of over 190 countries have resulted in a probability of limiting warming to below 2°C exceeding 50%. However, achieving the below 2°C target still requires many prerequisites, including the reliability of countries' commitments and developing countries' access to climate finance. India's latest target of net zero emissions by 2070 was criticized at COP26 as lackluster and below expectations for a major country. Rich countries are required to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 at the latest, and developing countries by 2060. China has set a target of 2060, but some analysts suggest it could reach this goal even earlier. India has also pledged to increase clean energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030 while reducing its economic emissions by 45%. India projects that its emissions have a chance to peak by 2040, but certain actions depend on securing adequate funding. "There are still many unknowns, as many countries' net-zero targets, including India's, are conditional on international support," said Mathewson. "We need that international support to be in place." Source: Environmental Information Center (https://e-info.org.tw/node/232683)

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