With only 50 days left until the COP27 climate conference in Egypt, the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in collaboration with several professional organizations, published the latest edition of the joint scientific report "United in Science" in mid-September. The report stated at the outset that humanity is heading in the wrong direction. Without more ambitious carbon reduction actions, the huge impact of climate change will become increasingly destructive!
First of all, the brief carbon reduction "boom" caused by the epidemic in the past two years has now disappeared.
Unstoppable! The 1.5℃ warning line will be breached within 5 years
As the epidemic gradually subsides and society begins to resume operations, human carbon emissions seem to have returned to their old ways, or even become worse than before.
In 2020, global anthropogenic carbon emissions initially fell by 5.4%. However, as countries gradually relaxed restrictions and resumed production and trade starting last year, global emissions gradually returned to pre-pandemic levels. Looking at data from the first five months of this year, global carbon emissions were 1.2% higher than in 2019, with the largest increases in the United States (5.7%) and India (7.5%).
What followed was a familiar scene: countries were struck by a succession of climate disasters, from the heatwave in Europe and the devastating floods in Pakistan to the severe droughts plaguing China, the United States, and Africa to this day. In May 2022, the iconic Mauna Loa station in Hawaii recorded a record-breaking atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration of 420.99 ppm!
In response, United in Science issued a stern warning, emphasizing that there's a 48% chance that the annual average temperature will exceed 1.5°C (1.5°C above the long-term average from 1850 to 1900) over the next five years (2022-26). There's also a 93% chance that at least one of these five years will surpass 2016 as the hottest year on record.
If current policies continue, global warming will soar to 2.5-2.8°C by the end of the 21st century. Phenomena considered by academics to be "tipping points" in the climate system, including reduced Greenland ice melt, the collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet, and the degradation of the Amazon rainforest, may all be witnessed within our lifetimes, potentially triggering irreversible chain reactions on the global ecosystem.
The 2030 mid-term carbon reduction target needs to be doubled.
The WMO uses such strong words in order to call on all countries to increase the intensity and speed of carbon reduction.
United in Science compiled the carbon reduction policies currently submitted by countries in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and found that the reductions before 2030 are severely insufficient. If the goal is to keep global warming below 1.5°C, countries' carbon reduction commitments would have to increase sevenfold. Even if the goal is to limit global warming to 2°C, the reductions would have to increase fourfold.
Source: Environmental Information Center (https://e-info.org.tw/node/235016)
